For a Better Future

If there is one country which had everything; from heritage, culture, diverse landscapes to a rich history, that is India. Epics like Ramayana & Mahabharata demonstrates it. India boasts of being the birth place of Hinduism & Buddhism & thought leaders like Gautam Buddha, Chanakya, Akbar, Swami Vivekananda. India was always a cosmopolitan country; an amalgamation of religions, caste, creed, culture & language. We call it “Unity in Diversity”. I am not saying this because I am a proud Indian, but for the fact that you get all possible flavors of life here, be here to believe it. India has always been a desired destination for humans as it is rich in natural resources, arable land & rivers. 

It all began with Harappa & Indus Valley civilization. Going through the history, one can fathom that these civilizations were far ahead of their times, making them the most advanced civilizations of all. The medieval period was the golden age of India with Ashoka, Mughal Empire, Gupta dynasty, Maurya Empire etc. Modern history is a painful one where the British Empire ruled over India for almost 200 years. In spite of several changes of guard, culture & heritage in Indian society has transcended time. You can almost say that culture & heritage is India’s DNA even today.

Divisive politics has always thrived in a multicultural country like India. India exhibited united nationalism only under extreme oppression from British rule, the first time people from all the states regardless of their religion or caste fought against the British for independence. It was similar to Greece, Italy & USA where states united for a common cause to call themselves a Nation. But, have we been able to reinstate India to its glorious past since 1947?

Today, we call ourselves as one of the “Superpowers” of the world because we have the 4^th strongest army & space technology in the world, we have a stable economy & market, we have the best brains of the world and we are the largest democracy of the world. India has progressed a lot, may be more than half of its progress has been after 1990. But the internal problems still haunt India today. Poverty & Illiteracy is still prevalent and has hindered further progress of Indian society. Average per capita income might have shot up aftermath 1990, but the economic difference between middle class & poor class has increased, probably the reason why Maoist revolutions are infested in 200 out of 800 districts in India. But these are given problems through which India has been surviving; there are several other reasons for which India has been limping behind in creating a model society.

Firstly, politicians of our country have been corrupt and inefficient; as a result, what we see today is the continuation of the imperial dominion. We are witnessing the same problems today for which our ancestors gave up their lives for independence. Politics in India is looked upon as the fastest money-making career, such deep rooted is corruption here. The political class must be directed by the constitution to live like an ordinary voter. J&K receives more central funding than Sikkim but Sikkim has a more balanced economy attributing to contrasting political leadership of these two states. Secondly, 67% of Indian population is associated with farming, but they live in dismal conditions because of the trade barriers imposed on them. Agricultural economy must be liberalized and producers must operate in a free market which in turn will help them income more and invest the same for more production. Agricultural innovations must move in now to increase productivity. Agriculture being the foundation of any economy, dedicated focus must be given to producers and agriculture sector as a whole. Thirdly, till date India has invested mostly in services & a little in R&D. We don’t have our own products or processes as we speak. Investing more in research now might give India a head start for the fourth industrial revolution. Fourthly, there is no social security for Indian citizens as such unlike US, UK. Accepted, that social security is possible in countries with robust economy and limited population per square km, but there should be social security schemes in an emerging economy in form of a comprehensive government-provided pension for workers with lower lifetime earnings and a strong foundation for retirement security with higher lifetime earnings. Fifthly, dearth of product-based start-ups has stalled job creation for the numerous students graduating each year. Sixthly,  India has not put its impetus on manufacturing sector which also is a key to revenue earned from exports. Seventhly,  a concerted effort should be made in improving facilities in government & government-aided schools to provide quality education in rural areas, which in turn will improve the average literacy rate. Lastly, improving relations with immediate neighbors and enabling free trade will boost India’s GDP in the long run.

To me, these problems constitute a fraction of the overall problems we face today as a country. If more focus is given to solving of internal & innate problems instead of lobbying for a place in G10 or Security Council, India will stand tall as a nation. India should not be perceived merely as “The Land of Maharajas” or “The Land of Taj Mahal” or “The Land of Poverty” in the future, it is up to the youth to ensure it.

Impact of "Disruptive" Technologies

The term “Disruptive Technology” was coined by Prof. Clayton Christensen in 1995 amidst the technology revolution phase in Computer hardware industry. Every little component inside a computer underwent a transformation of sorts, be it reduction in size, be it in fabrication techniques of microprocessors or be it in functioning of different components of the computer. While computers enjoyed the limelight of being amidst a technological revolution, there were numerous examples since 1960s which qualified of being “Disruptive” in their own rights. Transformation of an analogue radio to a transistor radio, emergence of portable calculators, transformation of CRT to LCD are some of the path breaking events which reinstated the fact that technology is evolving every day. A disruptive technology initially offers a comparatively lower performance with respect to the traditional demands of a market but at the same time provides fresh attributes, which in turn gets inculcated into consumer acceptance over a period of time; finally it substitutes the former version to emerge as a new industrial order.

The term “Disruptive Technology” was later modified into “Disruptive Innovation” in order to include business processes & models along with products; which possess the same capability of bringing about an absolute and immediate transformation in the industry. Introduction of Retail Stores was a disruptive business model which targeted innate consumer behaviour of impulsive buying. Google leveraged its position as the most powerful internet search engine company for tying search results to paid advertisement, which a lot of companies subscribe to. Apple has been a constant innovator with IPOD & IPAD technology creating almost a parallel market today. We are witnessing an overwhelming presence of Android & Windows OS replacing traditional Symbian OS in Mobile technology. Today, disruptive innovations are trying to utilize all the effective parameters to bring in a simplified & unified solution to common demands. A lot of technological innovations came up in the past couple of years targeted towards ease of lifestyle like Google glasses, Pebble Smartwatch, Microsoft Illumiroom, 3-D printer etc. Emergence of online, competency based learning universities is on the cards which will surely disrupt the way education has been delivered till now. Advanced robotics has been taken up by various Governments to strengthen their defence arsenal. The biggest enigma today as a form of disruptive technology is Big Data. It was always on the cards but it started gaining importance once analysts understood the value of churning that asymmetric information from disparate sources into something meaningful. As it caters to all sectors, it has completely changed the way firms used analytics to predict and identify business elements. IT services has taken a toll as well, with the introduction of a new & unknown competency. IT & ITes companies are re-orienting their focus on prominent, recent & disruptive technologies like Cloud computing, Big Data with Hadoop etc by creating a workforce with these niche technologies as their competency; re-orientation however takes time, that’s why the firms which foresee change beforehand have had an advantage over others.

But the use of innovation should not be restricted merely to creation of a niche market and realization of revenues from it. Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals are the sectors which need more innovation apart from the advancement of medical instruments, more to create a social impact. In India, Medtronic’s business model called “Healthy Heart For All” is making healthcare more affordable. Advancement of human genome technology is a noted achievement though. Various firms do advertise how latest technology is being leveraged for the society by them, to bring the world closer and to satisfy their basic needs, but the question still remains; How effectively can we implement these “disruptive” forms in order to facilitate every section of the society?

Is it the Death of a Cognition called "Emerging Markets"?

I have always wondered whether the concept of “Emerging Markets” was brought in, to lure investors away from a developed economy or new avenues were existing since 1990s and were unexplored until then. The present global economic condition poses an interesting riddle, answer to which lies more in luring investors away from developed economies. What we see today is the aftermath of an easy money-making decade for emerging markets where interest rates were low & commodity boom was high. It gave the whole world a different perception that investing in these markets would fetch them higher returns and the trend would continue as a long-term pattern.

The recent statistics show that investors have been pulling out cash from these markets, weakening their growth and overall image of being avenues of steady returns in spite of slowdowns. Indeed, these emerging markets constitute 80% of world population and 40% of global economy and had been the last resort to many investors in the last 15 years or so, whenever the fear of global recession had stalled investments in developed markets. Ironically, strengthening of US dollar and subsequent Federal Reserve’s policies has proved beneficial to US; US remains a resilient economy today after all the chronicles we witnessed on economic slowdown, fiscal cliff & real-estate boom from 2001-2012. It is a complete reversal of situations today where investors are looking for selected geographies to invest keeping developed economies in mind, while just a couple of months back, investors were banking on these emerging markets to salvage their returns. Investors are aware that emerging markets do have their own issues and the fact that some of the markets have been emerging since time immemorial and still have not transformed into developed markets. Emerging markets such as China, India, Brazil, Turkey, South Africa have been dependent on the decade-long boom for their infrastructure development. But today, when money is being pulled out consistently over the last 1 month from these markets, it is showing on the manufacturing output of these markets. Inter-related demand & supply between these markets has gone down, resulting in lower manufacturing. The key to long-term economic growth is consistency in manufacturing & infrastructure development. The prospective change in India’s policy on FDI in retail, must be a corrective measure having assessed the situation now.

Inflation and high cost of credit has come back with a vengeance in these markets. This has affected mainly the middle class of these nations who primarily depend on job salaries, which in turn never get revised to the extent of inflation percentage. Agitations in Turkey & Brazil are a result of venting their anger on rising prices of essential commodities. Even China, which was in the limelight for a decade is feeling the pain today. A stumbling EU & an over-hyped BRICS has contributed to this situation to an extent. But economic failures also depend on political leaderships; statistics say that any party/leader who rules a country for more than 10 years is counter-productive. Regimes need to change in order to view economic situations differently and bring in dynamic reforms to curb inflationary vibes in the market. Mexico, Philippines & Thailand are deemed to be the next generation of emerging markets, not only because of cheaper labour costs, but for new political leadership. The current situation might morph into a new global panic but most of the emerging markets are in better position today to withstand economic shocks with well capitalized banks. Good news is that most markets are projecting positive growth in pre-winter & post-winter quarters. Markets operate on sentiments, be it during downturn or during boom.

India, amidst extreme pressure of rising fiscal deficit and depreciating rupee, must find a new regime rather than expecting perpetual face-saving economic reforms which historically become ineffective after months’ time. It must leverage its strong democratic set up to overcome this challenge. Population explosion, poverty & illiteracy have been age-old excuses, which today cannot be accepted as the only deterrent factors towards economic stability of India.